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Chapter 7: Aftershock Jobs and Businesses

 

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly


One of the most surprising aspects of writing this book was looking back at this chapter in our 2006 book and seeing how very little of it needed to be changed. Our recommendations passed the test of time, and the economy evolved just as our analysis indicated it would. Basically, we nailed it. Now, three years later, we are going to tell you essentially the same things that we tried to warn you about before. This time, you may find it more relevant to your daily life. Given our unmatched track record for correctly predicting the Bubblequake, you should feel very comfortable about our advice in this chapter on how to find or hang onto relatively safe Aftershock jobs and businesses. Almost all our previous recommendations remain the same, except that we are now able to refine the timing.

As a reminder, this chapter is no different from the rest of the book in that we give you our best analysis, even if it is not what you want to hear. We don’t sugarcoat the truth. Hence, this is not a typical job counseling book that lists the winner jobs and loser jobs because in reality, it’s going to be pretty rough all the way around. There will be jobs and businesses that do better than others, but there won’t be many winners (although there are a few). That makes reading this chapter all the more important because even small mistakes can become big problems later. The earlier you see what’s coming, the better prepared you can be. This is no minor economic adjustment that we are about to face, so it is critical that you seriously consider the advice in this chapter.

This Ain't Your Daddy's Economic Slowdown


This is not the recession of the late 1970s and early 1980s. What we tend to think of when we hear the term “economic slowdown” is not what we are about to get. This one is going to be bigger, badder, deeper, and much longer than anything we’ve seen before. To understand how this will impact jobs, it helps to think of the U.S. economy in three parts:

 

  1. The Capital Goods Sector - cars, construction, major industrial equipment, and so forth
  2. The Discretionary Spending Sector - fine dining, entertainment, travel, high fashion, jewelry, art, and so forth
  3. The Necessities Sector - basic food, shelter, clothing, energy, health care, and so forth
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